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Regional climate projections for a multidisciplinary assessment of climate change impacts on food security in the Philippines

As part of a multidisciplinary project on climate change and food security, we produced downscaled climate change projections in the Philippines for use by crop, hydrology and economic modelers in climate change impact and vulnerability assessments.

The AMICAF is a comprehensive framework that aims to address climate change impacts and adaptation planning targeted at improving the food security of vulnerable household groups. The project begins with the generation of downscaled climate change scenarios by statistical methods and a robust assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture, using FAO’s MOSAICC. MOSAICC is an integrated system of different models designed for researchers in developing countries to carry out nation-wide climate change impact assessments at the sub-national scale for considerations by decision makers. The assessment focused on projections of changes in crop yields, surface water availability and provincial agricultural markets as major drivers of food security impacted by climate change.
The impact assessment outcome is feeding an assessment of current and future household vulnerability to food insecurity as a result of climate change through the development of an analytical econometrics model using national household datasets. A community-based approach to identify, test and evaluate adaptation options is implemented with farmers in two regions. The framework includes activities for enhanced awareness on impacts and vulnerability, improved institutional assessments mechanisms for policy simulations, and knowledge management.

The paper will present the result of the Philippine climate downscaling with multiple GCMs, emission scenarios and downscaling methods, and discuss the challenges and lessons learned about use of regional climate information in multidisciplinary impact and vulnerability studies within an adaptation and food security project.

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