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Predicting extreme avalanches in SOC sandpiles

Revista: Physical Review E
Año: 2009   Volumen: 802
Página inicial: 26124  
Estado: Publicado
En este estado desde: 30 Ene 2009
Archivo PDF: sandpile_prediction.pdf
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.80.026124
Garber, A., , Kantz, H.

In a finite-size Abelian sandpile model, extreme avalanches are repelling each other. Taking a time series of the avalanche size and using a decision variable derived from that, we predict the occurrence of a particularly large avalanche in the next time step. The larger the magnitude of these target avalanches, the better is their predictability. The predictability which is based on a finite-size effect, is discussed as a function of the system size.

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