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Quality Assurance for Multi-model Seasonal Forecast Products

logo_qa4seas2.png Project type: European project
Funding institution: COPERNICUS
Program: Research/Trasfer Contracts
Period: July 2016 - September 2018
Status: Finished

QA4Seas (Quality Assurance for Multi-model Seasonal Forecast Products) aims at developing a strategy for the evaluation and quality control (EQC) of the multi-model seasonal forecasts provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to respond to the needs identified among a wide range of stakeholders. The quality assessment will be user driven and will put at work the best expertise available on the evaluation of the multi-faceted quality aspects of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. A thorough survey, coordinated with other lots of the C3S 51 tender, will be undertaken and analysed to provide a detailed mapping of the user needs, identifying those features that should be addressed with priority. The survey, which will be carried out in two stages, will be fed with general information about the data available and the concepts that form the basis of seasonal forecasting, including illustrations from a preliminary assessment. Its outcome will be used to identify a set of the requirements for the climate data store (CDS) to address the main user requirements, to perform a gap analysis of the current information available to users and to develop a prototype of the EQC system that will illustrate the strategy proposed for the future development of the C3S. The project is promoted by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS), which leads a consortium of six institutions well known for their expertise in their engagement with users of seasonal predictions, their engagement in the development of the most advanced methods of forecast quality assessment, their commitment to provide public instruments to perform purpose-built statistical downscaling of seasonal forecasts, and their ability to build up efficient technical solutions to address user needs.