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Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in Mediterranean Europe

Journal: Climate Services
Year: 2018  
Status: Published
In this status since: 15 Mar 2018
PDF file: Bedia et al. - 2017 - Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index Paving.pdf
DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2017.04.001
, Golding. N., , , Buontempo, C.,

Managers of wildfire-prone landscapes in the Euro-Mediterranean region would greatly benefit from fire weather predictions a few months in advance, and particularly from the reliable prediction of extreme fire seasons. However, in some cases model biases prevent from a direct application of these predictions in an operational context. In this paper we consider whether the skill in dynamical seasonal predictions of one of the most widely applied of such indices (the Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI) is sufficient to inform management decisions, and we examine various methodological aspects regarding the calibration of model outputs prior to its verification and operational applicability.