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SPECS

Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services

logo_specs.png Project type: European project
Funding institution: European Union
Program: 7th European FP
Code: 308378
Period: November 2012 - January 2017
Status: In progress
Web: http://www.specs-fp7.eu

Highlights:

ECOMS-UDG (User Data Gateway), including an R package for data access. Joint SPECS-EUPORIAS initiative.

downscaleR package. An R package for statistical bias correction and downscaling.

Hands-on training workshop on “seasonal forecasting and downscaling” (Santander 8-12 September 2014). Program, slides and training material.

Description:

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) sponsored the Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS) where the need for actionable climate information for periods from several months up to several years for economic, industrial and political planning has been expressed. However, progress in seasonal forecasting has been slow and decadal forecasting is still incipient. At the same time, new model components to address the role of sea ice, land surface, stratosphere, ocean and their resolution in global models are now available from the climate change and weather forecasting communities. Methods for sophisticated downscaling and calibration for local, reliable climate predictions are scarce in Europe. In this context, SPECS aims to identify the main problems in climate prediction and investigate a battery of solutions from a seamless perspective. SPECS will undertake research and dissemination activities to deliver a new generation of European climate forecast systems, with improved forecast quality and efficient regionalisation tools to produce reliable, local climate information over land at seasonal-to-decadal time scales, and provide an enhanced communication protocol and services to satisfy the climate information needs of a wide range of public and private stakeholders.
The improved understanding and seamless predictions will offer better estimates of the future frequency of high-impact, extreme climatic events and of the prediction uncertainty. New services to convey climate information and its quality will be used. SPECS will be, among other things, the glue to coalesce the outcome of previous researchefforts that hardly took climate prediction into account. SPECS will ensure interoperability so as to easily incorporate their application in an operational context, provide the basis for improving the capacity of European policy making, industry and society to adapt to near-future climate variations and a coordinated response to some of the GFCS components.

Contribution of the Santander Meteorology Group:
Our group leads WP52 and contributes to WP21.

  • WP21: Forecast quality of s2d systems.
  • WP52: Local predictions based on statistical and dynamical downscaling.

Deliverables:

  • D52.1 (WP52): Review of the different statistical downscaling methods for s2d prediction (M12). [SPECS public deliverables]
  • D52.2 (WP52): R-based package released for statistical downscaling s2d forecast (M36).
  • D52.4 (WP52): Scientific paper on the added value of the dynamical downscaling (M44).

Milestiones:

  • MS52 (WP52): Joint WP5.2 and RT6 hands-on training workshop using the R-based dowscalling package (M24): SPECS Hands-on training workshop on
    “seasonal forecasting and downscaling” [workshop page]

  • MS22 (WP21): Preliminary report and catalogue of performance o f existing s2d systems (M30, verification: report and web site distributed to th e consortium for feedback).

Additional information: CORDIS.europa.eu.

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