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Ensemble prediction system for seasonal forecast and regional climate change based on the principal state-of-the-art, global and regional models developed in Europe

logo_ensembles.jpg Tipo de proyecto: Proyecto europeo
Fuente Financiadora: European Union
Programa: UE 6º Programa Marco
Código: GOCE-CT-2003-505539
Periodo: Septiembre 2005 - Septiembre 2009
Estado: Terminado
Web: http://www.ensembles-eu.org

Final Report of the ENSEMBLES Project

ENSEMBLES (Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impacts):
The project aims to develop a regional ensemble prediction system for sesonal to interannual prediction (focusing on climate change) based on the principal state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales. It also aims to maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and weather risk management.

Dowload an informative brochure (229.72 KB)

Dowload the Eighth Ensembles Newsletter (1.4 MB) for an updated status of the project (including a note on the 5th ENSEMBLES General Assembly, hosted in Santander by the Santander Meteorology Group).

Key Achievements of the project:

Contribution of the Santander Meteorology Group:
Our group contributes to RT2B in the following workpackages:

  • WP2B.2 (development of new methods for the construction of probabilistic regional climate scenarios based on output from RCMs and GCMs).

  • WP2B.3 (application of new methods for the construction of probabilistic high-resolution regional climate scenarios), focusing on the application of the new tools developed in WP2B.2 to output from RCMs (WP2B.1) and GCMs (RT2A).
  • Web portal for regional downscaling http://www.meteo.unican.es/ensembles.

The above two tasks will thus provide data inputs for the selected impacts studies in RT6 and probabilistic climate scenarios for study regions and Europe as a whole, for mean climate parameters and impact relevant indices including indicators of extremes (which will also be useful for impact studies not incorporated in ENSEMBLES). Application of these methods will also provide information on the most important sources of uncertainty in the final regional climate scenarios, which will be an important feedback to the climate modelling activities in ENSEMBLES (i.e., RT1, RT2A and RT3).

Deliverables: link to MetOffice repository

  • D2B.4. A first prototype of web service for downscaling at seasonal-to-decadal timescales.
  • D2B.13. ERA-40 based predictor data set for statistical downscaling.
  • D2B.17. GCM-based predictor data set for statistical downscaling.
  • D2B.19. Extension of the ENSEMBLES web-based service for downscaling.
  • D2B.23. Journal paper on a test case application of the downscaling portal for seasonal forecasts in agriculture or energy sectors.
  • D2B.27. Assessment of the robustness of stastical downscaling techniques using GCM and RCM output.
  • D2B.29 (coordinated by INM). Journal paper on the results of the seasonal dynamical downscaling method.