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Skillful Seasonal Predictions of Boreal Winter Accumulated Heating Degree Days and Relevance for the Weather Derivative Market

Revista: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Año: 2013   Volumen: 52
Página inicial: 1297   Última página: 1302
Estado: Publicado
En este estado desde: 1 Jun 2013
Archivo PDF: 2013_Brands_JAMC_HDD.pdf
DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0303.1

It is demonstrated that boreal winter accumulated heating degree days, a weather derivative product frequently demanded by energy suppliers (among others), can be skillfully predicted with a lead time of one month, i.e. at the beginning of the previous November, for many regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropcis. This finding contradicts the assumption of poor seasonal predictability for this variable. The present short note is meant to properly inform the participants of the weather derivative market in order to assure market transparency and to foster the scientific discussion on how to disseminate with this formerly unknown expert knowledge.