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Evaluation of the Euro-CORDEX regional climate models over the Iberian Peninsula: Observational uncertainty analysis

Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Year: 2020  
Status: Published
In this status since: 29 May 2020
Link to PDF: Herrera JGR 2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020JD032880
, Soares, P. M. M., Cardoso, R.M.,

This work evaluates the daily precipitation and mean temperature of eight ERA-Interim-driven simulations of EURO-CORDEX over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). To this aim, the Iberia01 dataset was considered and compared with the RCM by means of several weather indices reflecting both the mean and extreme regimes over the IP. In addition, in order to evaluate the observational uncertainty, the E-OBS v17 dataset was also used to evaluate the models.

Regional climate models are able to reproduce the spatial pattern and the variability observed for precipitation and mean temperature in the IP. However, a higher agreement between models and observations has been found for the mean temperature than for precipitation. As could be expected, for both variables the difference between models and observations increases when the extremes are analyzed.

Finally, for the observational uncertainty analysis, also the maximum and minimum daily temperatures were considered to obtain a more general picture of this topic. A higher dependence on the observational dataset has been found for precipitation than for temperature. This uncertainty is particularly significant when the 50-years return value is considered for which the observational uncertainty doubles the model uncertainty. Only the wet-day frequency presents values lower than 0.5 for all the seasons, with the rest of values, with isolated exceptions, reflecting a similar contribution of both components, model and observations, to the uncertainty. In the case of temperatures, the main contribution of the observations have been found when the lower (MAE01) and upper (MAE99) extremes are considered values lower than 0.5.