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Large biases and wrong climate change signals in some ENSEMBLES regional projections

Journal: Climatic Change
Year: 2013  
Status: Published
In this status since: 2 Aug 2013
PDF file: 2013_Turco_CC.pdf
Link to PDF: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0844-y
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0844-y
Turco, M., Antonella, S., , Llasat, M.C.,

In this paper we focus on the analysis of GCM-RCM coupling uncertainty considering the state-of-the-art ENSEMBLES dataset. We focus on precipitation over Spain and compare the performance of the GCM-driven control runs (20C3M) with the ERA40- driven ones (perfect boundary conditions) in a common period (1961-2000). Large deviations between both results indicate a large uncertainty/bias for the particular GCM-RCM combination and, hence, a small confidence for the corresponding transient simulations (or projections for a future period) due to the possible nonlinear amplification of biases. We find very large biases for some particular GCM-RCM couplings which can be considered clear outliers/errors of the ensemble. Moreover, we give some evidence of the nonlinear amplification of biases affecting the climate change signal (or "delta") for those defective simulations.