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Spatio-temporal error growth in the multi-scale Lorenz96 model

Journal: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics
Year: 2010   Volume: 17
Initial page: 329   Last page: 337
Status: Published
In this status since: 3 Jul 2010
Link to PDF: http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/17/329/2010/npg-17-329-2010.pdf
DOI: 10.5194/npg-17-329-2010

The influence of multiple spatio-temporal scales on the error growth and predictability of atmospheric flows is analyzed throughout the paper. To this aim, we consider the two-scale Lorenz’96 model and study the interplay of the slow and fast variables on the error growth dynamics. It is shown that when the coupling between slow and fast variables is weak the slow variables dominate the evolution of fluctuations whereas in the case of strong coupling the fast variables impose a non-trivial complex error growth pattern on the slow variables with two different regimes, before and after saturation of fast variables. This complex behavior is analyzed using the recently introduced Mean-Variance Logarithmic (MVL) diagram.